Cumbersome-Shakedown-Chopstick
0x024e23f86509d3847417b0ad1409ccc7424c8fa1
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$7.8K
Total PnL
$-168.19
Realised
$8.42
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
699 shares @ 79.8¢·now 78.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$547.67
$-10.18
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 56.9¢·now 52.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$526.50
$-42.75
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 42.9¢·now 47.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$473.50
$44.40
- NO
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$427.50
$177.50
- NO
Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
403 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$401.69
$2.86
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
425 shares @ 79.6¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$354.88
$16.45
- NO
Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election?
327 shares @ 91.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$319.04
$19.07
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
272 shares @ 91.6¢·now 95.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$258.64
$9.81
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
234 shares @ 87.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$218.87
$13.52
- NO
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
160 shares @ 93.5¢·now 96.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$153.76
$4.24
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?$0.28Aug 22, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$0.88Aug 22, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$0.97Aug 22, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?$19.32Aug 22, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$4.42Aug 22, 00:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Aug 22, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026?$39.84Aug 21, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeromie Whalen be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?$39.90Aug 21, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$103.00Aug 21, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$4.60Aug 21, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$7.28Aug 21, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFirst Round Outright Winner in the GA-14 House Election?$7.79Aug 21, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYFirst Round Outright Winner in the LA-05 House Election?$0.19Aug 21, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$4.37Aug 21, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Aug 21, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$4.32Aug 20, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?$39.48Aug 20, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$12.60Aug 20, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?$91.00Aug 20, 12:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Aug 20, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $31.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 22:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 09:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.