Pertinent-Vengeance
0x0275ac8f6793cc3ffe90dc1095330e240622b936
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$371.53
Total PnL
$40.95
Realised
$122.67
Win rate
80%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
63 shares @ 5.0¢·now 16.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$10.65
$7.50
- YES
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
40 shares @ 8.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.57
$5.38
- NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
25 shares @ 13.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.90
$4.58
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?
80 shares @ 4.0¢·now 9.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.88
$4.68
- YES
Will ByteDance have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?
35 shares @ 7.0¢·now 22.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$7.88
$5.46
- YES
Will Toy Story 5 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
19 shares @ 18.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$6.78
$3.39
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 26.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.08
$2.56
- YES
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 22.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.01
$2.57
- NO
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
31 shares @ 10.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.83
$2.76
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
13 shares @ 26.2¢·now 41.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.53
$2.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$0.36Aug 18, 00:52 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Aug 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?$3.50Aug 18, 00:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Julia Arcelia Olguín Serna win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?$1.05Aug 18, 00:35 UTC
- REWARD$1.62Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the #1 global Netflix show have at least 9 million views this week?$3.12Aug 17, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?$0.34Aug 17, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$0.48Aug 17, 23:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$2.40Aug 17, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?$3.40Aug 17, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?$2.30Aug 17, 22:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?$0.00Aug 17, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?$0.00Aug 17, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$0.48Aug 17, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?$3.45Aug 17, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?$3.23Aug 17, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$2.58Aug 17, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$0.57Aug 17, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$0.69Aug 17, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLJeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?$1.87Aug 17, 20:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
35 closed markets, 80% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 08:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.