Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 46¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2745h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2744.9h
- 15:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2745h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 46¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 46¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 46¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 48¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 44¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 31¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 41¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 41¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 7¢0.0pp
Will Jorge Malavet be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate B be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate F be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate J be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate O be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 8¢-0.5pp
Will Marcus Carter be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 30¢-4.0pp
Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate D be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $880.3K
- 3¢-1.1pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $642.9K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $603.8K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $492.7K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $371.1K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $343.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).