0x02a17a92e6f673129b37d95359c7af628a3cdd72
0x02a17a92e6f673129b37d95359c7af628a3cdd72
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$102.8K
Total PnL
$5.4K
Realised
$-10.3K
Win rate
75%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
43136 shares @ 50.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.5K
$17.8K
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
24985 shares @ 81.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.9K
$3.4K
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
22000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 88.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.4K
$8.4K
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
9001 shares @ 64.4¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.7K
$1.9K
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5000 shares @ 58.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.9K
$-29.99
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
22000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.6K
$-8.4K
- NO
NATO dissolves before 2027?
1500 shares @ 90.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$111.00
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
12000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$-5.0K
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1550 shares @ 36.4¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$450.75
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
2620 shares @ 49.3¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$982.56
$-309.88
Recent activity
- YIELD$5.67Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$5.67Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.67Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.67Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.66Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.8KJul 23, 07:47 UTC
- YIELD$5.41Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- SPLITWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.0KJul 22, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$5.3KJul 22, 16:37 UTC
- YIELD$5.82Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$4.9KJul 21, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$4.61Jul 21, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$41.71Jul 21, 19:50 UTC
- MERGEWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$7.0KJul 21, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$186.60Jul 21, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.70Jul 21, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.00Jul 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.11Jul 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.50Jul 21, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$6.69Jul 21, 10:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $575.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.