Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 30, 2026

Creator

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Probability

55¢

+0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$91.0K

Liquidity

$128.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Sep 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Russian government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d

55¢

Jun 3, 2026, 00:00 UTCJun 9, 2026, 23:29 UTC

updated 23:29:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-09T23-29Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Sep 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Russian government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Russian government

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Sep 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 2688.5h
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 55¢.

updated 23:29:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 23:29:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Category · Politics

Market Description

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?"?

As of Tue, 09 Jun 2026 23:29:40 GMT, YES is priced at 55% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 30, 2026 (2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$91.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.5M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $128.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket