0x02b8c8e5bac91dbcd82fab3b047e5f99a3bae0ee
0x02b8c8e5bac91dbcd82fab3b047e5f99a3bae0ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$24.30
Total PnL
$-4.86
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
3 shares @ 57.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.82
$0.88
- NO
Will Jordan Herrera be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?
3 shares @ 71.9¢·now 87.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$2.38
$0.43
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 82.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.08
$0.12
- NO
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.98
$0.03
- NO
Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?
2 shares @ 82.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$1.95
$-0.01
- NO
Will Ulf Prange win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$1.88
$-0.06
- NO
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
2 shares @ 89.2¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.85
$-0.12
- NO
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
3 shares @ 66.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$1.79
$-0.15
- NO
Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$1.71
$-0.23
- NO
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.62
$-0.29
Recent activity
- REDEEMMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$2.28Aug 1, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ulf Prange win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?$1.98Aug 1, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?$3.45Aug 1, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$1.97Jul 31, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?$1.97Jul 31, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 9-11 times in July?$2.96Jul 31, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$1.98Jul 30, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?$1.97Jul 30, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?$2.75Jul 30, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matt Boehnke advance to the general election for WA-04?$2.45Jul 28, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?$1.97Jul 19, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?$1.98Jul 18, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 9-11 times in July?$1.98Jul 17, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Herrera be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?$1.97Jul 16, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$1.97Jul 16, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Boehnke advance to the general election for WA-04?$1.97Jul 15, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$1.97Jul 15, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$1.97Jul 15, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.98Jul 14, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$1.96Jul 14, 22:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 16:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 06:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.