Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

1. 1

   Up 2pp over 24h

   Now 87¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 3872h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $18.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).