Flickering-Subgroup
0x02c80c7bc8a4581baa3f7fc69cb24350b0ed3c02
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$223.72
Total PnL
$-23.66
Realised
$-1.27
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 1?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$10.98
$0.99
- YES
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
12 shares @ 82.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.54
$0.55
- NO
Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$10.17
$0.18
- NO
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?
13 shares @ 78.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$10.13
$0.13
- NO
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
14 shares @ 69.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?
14 shares @ 71.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$9.93
$-0.07
- NO
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$9.63
$-0.38
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?
11 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.49
$-0.06
- ELINA SVITOLINA
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elina Svitolina
16 shares @ 62.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$9.43
$-0.56
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.16
$-0.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 1?$3.65Jul 31, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?$10.00Jul 31, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.75Jul 31, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 1?$3.85Jul 31, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?$1.90Jul 31, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.20Jul 31, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYNyiregyhaza Spartacus FC to win the second half?$9.96Jul 31, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?$0.27Jul 31, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2.50Jul 31, 16:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 1?$5.36Jul 31, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.95Jul 31, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?$6.75Jul 31, 15:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?$1.97Jul 31, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?$1.02Jul 31, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?$8.08Jul 31, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 1?$1.45Jul 31, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$5.61Jul 31, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 1?$4.99Jul 31, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 1?$0.62Jul 31, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBNB Up or Down on July 31?$0.40Jul 31, 14:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 12:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 19:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.