0x03066ef0af3426277a578559e3847c806b23a81e
0x03066ef0af3426277a578559e3847c806b23a81e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$533.63
Total PnL
$-812.73
Realised
$-1.70
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
200 shares @ 82.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$151.00
$-13.00
- NO
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?
162 shares @ 62.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$67.35
$-33.27
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
201 shares @ 43.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$59.25
$-27.12
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
200 shares @ 52.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$39.00
$-65.00
- NO
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
48 shares @ 83.2¢·now 76.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$36.46
$-3.45
- YES
QFEX FDV above $80M one day after launch?
66 shares @ 47.4¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$26.93
$-4.59
- YES
Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?
75 shares @ 51.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$21.75
$-16.50
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?
120 shares @ 26.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.75
$-11.37
- YES
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
73 shares @ 62.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.22
$-25.74
- YES
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
109 shares @ 29.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.08
$-12.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?$2.00Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?$15.75Jul 26, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?$6.30Jul 26, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series?$0.96Jul 26, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$58.56Jul 22, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?$0.87Jul 18, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$45.52Jul 18, 08:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$14.64Jul 18, 08:06 UTC
- REWARD$4.11Jul 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$80.00Jul 16, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?$0.51Jul 16, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$77.00Jul 16, 10:07 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.31Jul 16, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$14.33Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist in the US for 2026?$6.51Jul 15, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist in the US for 2026?$2.24Jul 15, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$56.53Jul 15, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $30M committed to the Credible public sale?$35.60Jul 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $30M committed to the Credible public sale?$1.00Jul 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $30M committed to the Credible public sale?$11.00Jul 15, 09:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $15.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.