Crafty-Version
0x03774b6b2cb730563ca874ee4beb2ceb74fd8fa0
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
6000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-12.99
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2753 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-860.69
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-41.00
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
500 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-21.50
- YES
U.S. Recession in 2024?
386 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
U.S. recession before May 2025?
371 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?
250 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2024$0.00
$-9.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?$10.80Apr 6, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30?$1.10Apr 4, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$16.00Apr 4, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024?$0.00Apr 4, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$20.00Apr 4, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?$10.02Mar 11, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.52Jan 13, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$4.95Jan 13, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$3.53Jan 13, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$4.04Jan 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$2.15Jan 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$1.19Jan 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$2.15Jan 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$3.35Jan 12, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$2.43Jan 12, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$6.18Jan 12, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$3.00Jan 12, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$41.00Jan 12, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recession before May 2025?$0.90Feb 10, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recession before May 2025?$0.39Feb 6, 10:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $24.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 5, 12:26 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 6, 10:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.