OtherExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Probability

7¢

+0.0pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$22.7K

Liquidity

$66.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:44

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 7¢; flat in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 106.3h
LOW
13:44Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
06:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -4.0pp
to 8¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability down -6.5pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability up 3.5pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Apr 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket