Constant-Cranberry
0x0387b38bbd5d84670bf8adbbf14129653f1462d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-106.69
Realised
$-16.40
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?
501 shares @ 94.8¢·now 97.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$489.11
$14.05
- NO
Will BMO fail by end of 2026?
208 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$204.74
$3.10
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
200 shares @ 96.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$196.10
$3.90
- NO
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?
200 shares @ 89.2¢·now 97.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$195.20
$16.81
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
141 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$134.53
$7.74
- NO
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
132 shares @ 61.6¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$108.40
$27.00
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
112 shares @ 91.8¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.68
$4.94
- NO
Fed abolished before 2027?
102 shares @ 93.7¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.15
$5.51
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
100 shares @ 61.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$82.50
$21.50
- NO
Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026?
81 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.34
$0.67
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?$8.37Jul 21, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$41.92Jul 20, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?$30.28Jul 15, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$52.00Jul 10, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$76.07Jul 6, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$4.74Jul 5, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$5.62Jul 4, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$1.74Jul 3, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30?$11.00Jul 1, 19:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Databricks have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?$105.00Jul 1, 19:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?$35.64Jul 1, 19:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?$250.00Jul 1, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?$279.14Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?$74.99Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026?$219.98Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill BMO fail by June 30, 2026?$16.11Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$50.00Jun 30, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$6.74Jun 24, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$71.34Jun 24, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$56.00Jun 24, 11:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $21.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 02:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 17:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.