Stupendous-Motherinlaw-Deficit
0x03b4792ed953aff5db1c51737e7db64294dc8706
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.67
Total PnL
$-211.98
Realised
$2.67
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
5 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.45
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 27?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.20
$0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on July 27?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.13
$-0.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 26?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.10
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 25?
180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.09
$-0.09
- YES
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
20 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.07
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 26?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.07
$-0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 25?
76 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.04
$-0.04
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of July?
10 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.47
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 27?$0.25Jul 25, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on July 27?$0.17Jul 25, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on July 27?$0.13Jul 25, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 25?$0.05Jul 25, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?$0.05Jul 25, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 27?$0.02Jul 25, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 27?$0.04Jul 25, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 25?$0.00Jul 25, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 25?$0.40Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 25?$0.01Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 25?$0.01Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 25?$0.00Jul 25, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 26?$0.10Jul 25, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 27?$0.01Jul 25, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 27?$0.05Jul 25, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 27?$0.08Jul 25, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on July 27?$0.10Jul 25, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 27?$0.00Jul 25, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 25?$1.25Jul 25, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on July 27?$0.10Jul 25, 06:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 05:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 13:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.