Leading-Gondola
0x03f3f02acf1c1b3daa3e919fdf4a5327f27be827
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$12.03
Total PnL
$-6.84
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by May 31?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.41
$0.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.77
$0.00
- NO
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.42
$0.00
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.37
$0.01
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.34
$0.00
- NO
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.27
$0.03
- NO
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.25
$0.01
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.19
$0.00
- NO
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?
6 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
3 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.75
Recent activity
- REDEEM0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7?$1.86Jul 15, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 13, 2026?$1.91Jul 14, 19:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B?$1.56Jul 14, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7?$1.86Jul 11, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 13, 2026?$1.87Jul 11, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on July 6?$1.82Jul 6, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on July 6?$1.82Jul 5, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by June 30?$1.25Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B?$1.54Jun 29, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$1.25Jun 29, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14?$1.08Jun 14, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14?$1.44Jun 14, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14?$1.08Jun 14, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14?$1.43Jun 14, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by May 31?$2.41May 31, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 8?$1.34May 9, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?$1.24Apr 30, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30?$1.24Apr 29, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?$1.36Apr 14, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$1.42Mar 29, 06:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 4, 08:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 18:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.