Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$26.25
Liquidity
$26.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 110.2h
- 09:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 110h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $10.7M
- 9¢+3.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $3.6M
- 70¢+45.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.2M
- 35¢+6.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $884.6K
- 4¢-0.4pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $838.5K
- 28¢+22.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $814.7K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Muffled-Protein500
- Evil-Row470
- Super-Arena364
- Musty-Suit230
- Dapper-Baseball200