Rude-Crossstitch
0x04045703a1b01f44ab8dfe125c51830082bf4719
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
180
Open notional
$777.60
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$1.81
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 180- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
75 shares @ 93.5¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.06
$2.06
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$50.38
$0.38
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 28?
50 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.77
$-0.23
- NO
Will Solana reach $80 on July 28?
50 shares @ 99.5¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.39
$-0.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 29?
41 shares @ 96.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$40.87
$0.87
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 29?
40 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$39.97
$-0.03
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 28?
40 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$39.82
$-0.18
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 28?
41 shares @ 97.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$38.91
$-1.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?
41 shares @ 97.6¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.69
$-2.31
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
32 shares @ 94.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$30.78
$0.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$6.01Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$50.04Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$30.08Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?$40.05Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?$30.09Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$10.02Jul 28, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 29?$30.01Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 29?$30.01Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 29?$10.07Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 29?$40.01Jul 28, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?$30.04Jul 28, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 29?$40.07Jul 28, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?$20.11Jul 28, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $80 on July 28?$50.02Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 28?$40.03Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 28?$50.02Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 28?$40.08Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$2.02Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 28?$11.93Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 28?$19.17Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $29.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 19:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.