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OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$335.5K

Liquidity

$979.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.2pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 19:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:05
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6005.9h

    LOW
  • 18:06Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status
n/a
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

20 wallets
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