Queasy-Airship
0x048a9d673a40171a1cf44ef518893d35fdf09be4
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$19.8K
Total PnL
$5.27
Realised
$7.0K
Win rate
47%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
1525 shares @ 49.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.4K
$687.13
- NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
975 shares @ 74.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$804.36
$82.88
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
1050 shares @ 56.5¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$750.75
$157.16
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
650 shares @ 89.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$637.98
$59.48
- NO
Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
937 shares @ 82.4¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$613.74
$-158.28
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
607 shares @ 80.9¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$600.49
$109.62
- NO
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
610 shares @ 82.6¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$595.66
$91.95
- NO
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
605 shares @ 83.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$565.66
$63.52
- YES
Will Kyler Murray be the Vikings' Week 1 starting QB?
585 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$551.57
$48.64
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
550 shares @ 65.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$532.67
$175.18
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.10Aug 18, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$1.55Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?$485.00Aug 17, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?$312.87Aug 17, 21:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$5.56Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$190.04Aug 16, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$7.50Aug 16, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$22.36Aug 16, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$2.50Aug 16, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$1.65Aug 16, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by August 15?$584.99Aug 16, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$350.00Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$11.29Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$25.00Aug 15, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$0.96Aug 15, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$110.84Aug 15, 11:46 UTC
- REDEEMMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$500.00Aug 15, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?$1.51Aug 15, 05:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
32 closed markets, 47% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $44.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 18:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.