MacroMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 16, 2026
Creator

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Probability

81¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$4.3K

Liquidity

$33.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Federal Reserve
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
81¢
May 13, 2026, 22:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 09:22 UTC
updated 09:23:07 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T09-23Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 81¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 16, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2942.6h

    LOW

Price movement

+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.

updated 09:23:07 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 09:23:07 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Macro

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

fed

Reason

Question text contains "fed" — matched the Macro keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 09:23:07 GMT, YES is priced at 81% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 16, 2026 (2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $33.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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