Thoughtful-Understatement
0x0491441ceb60bb8cba20f65e6d97da76dcdfa47f
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$10.9K
Total PnL
$528.74
Realised
$156.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
3579 shares @ 94.5¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.6K
$168.11
- NO
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
2500 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$87.50
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2404 shares @ 93.9¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$-0.60
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1500 shares @ 82.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$112.50
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
500 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$484.75
$4.94
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
400 shares @ 82.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$362.00
$34.00
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
257 shares @ 92.6¢·now 91.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$234.79
$-3.21
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
110 shares @ 50.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$94.00
$38.99
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
110 shares @ 50.0¢·now 84.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$93.33
$38.33
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$45.50
$0.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.31Jun 13, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.03Jun 13, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$1.23Jun 13, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$1.02Jun 13, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$1.10Jun 13, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$1.02Jun 13, 16:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.06Jun 13, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.01Jun 13, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.31Jun 13, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.03Jun 13, 09:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.33Jun 13, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.03Jun 13, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.09Jun 13, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.01Jun 13, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$1.23Jun 13, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$1.02Jun 13, 04:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$1.23Jun 13, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$1.02Jun 13, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026?$45.00Jun 13, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026?$29.70Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $34.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.