Human moon landing in 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$230.51
Liquidity
$35.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.1h
- 12:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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