Spherical-Fringe
0x04b3f873b003eba3774df1e5e47a370d27ee1b7e
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$154.77
Realised
$18.21
Win rate
58%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
51 shares @ 11.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$48.90
$42.90
- NO
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?
49 shares @ 40.8¢·now 96.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$47.12
$27.12
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
58 shares @ 26.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$47.02
$32.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?
37 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.02
$17.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?
35 shares @ 57.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$34.52
$14.52
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
109 shares @ 10.0¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$33.75
$22.88
- YES
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?
33 shares @ 30.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$32.82
$22.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?
32 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$32.24
$12.24
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
69 shares @ 43.7¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$31.58
$1.58
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 29?
28 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$28.15
$8.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?$20.34Jul 29, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 30?$20.15Jul 29, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$0.53Jul 29, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$0.32Jul 29, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$16.50Jul 29, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$0.01Jul 29, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$0.01Jul 29, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$0.03Jul 29, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$0.05Jul 29, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$9.04Jul 29, 10:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$3.75Jul 29, 10:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$1.11Jul 29, 10:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$2.29Jul 29, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$7.62Jul 29, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$4.19Jul 29, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 31?$20.26Jul 29, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$10.00Jul 29, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?$24.20Jul 29, 09:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$1.74Jul 29, 09:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$1.15Jul 29, 09:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
78/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
48 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $9.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 12:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.