New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 79¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 4593h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $16.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.