Mature-Walkway
0x04b8a18e050a5b2f635d12853b5998ba0ef2ec46
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-784.34
Realised
$294.94
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- $3,000
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?
1165 shares @ 55.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$576.75
$-64.06
- NO
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 54.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$367.50
$97.50
- $140
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
791 shares @ 15.9¢·now 24.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$191.73
$66.31
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
10171 shares @ 9.6¢·now 1.6¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$162.74
$-817.72
- YES
Will Milady floor price reach 2 ETH before 2027?
60 shares @ 69.2¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$30.09
$-11.53
- NO
Will Bruno Fernandes stay at Manchester United?
500 shares @ 9.5¢·now 4.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$19.75
$-27.75
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 41.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.58
$-0.78
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
1210 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.13
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1AM ET
550 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-81.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9PM ET
300 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$9.32Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Fernandes stay at Manchester United?$47.50Jul 24, 16:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$2.48Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.50Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- REWARD$2.36Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $48.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.