Wallet digest

active

Activity score

47/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-785.15

Realised

$4.35

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 12

NO
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?
2500 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-100.00
YES
Bitcoin above $114K on August 25?
1250 shares @ 14.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2025
$0.00
$-185.00
YES
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the UK state banquet on September 17?
513 shares @ 34.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-175.00
YES
Will Google be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
296 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with South Korean president on August 25?
200 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2025
$0.00
$-72.00
NO
Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" by October 15?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025
$0.00
$-0.20
YES
Will Trump say "Beautiful wife" or "Wonderful wife" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?
100 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 21, 2025
$0.00
$-72.00
NO
Will Trump say "Africa" 8+ times during events with South African President on May 21?
100 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2025
$0.00
$-33.00
YES
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during the UK state banquet on September 17?
100 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-38.00
YES
Will Trump say "King" during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?
100 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 23, 2025
$0.00
$-24.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLHurricanes vs. Maple Leafs$0.19Nov 10, 02:28 UTC
TRADESELLHurricanes vs. Maple Leafs$3.92Nov 10, 02:28 UTC
TRADESELLHurricanes vs. Maple Leafs$3.92Nov 10, 02:28 UTC
TRADESELLHurricanes vs. Maple Leafs$20.00Nov 10, 02:28 UTC
TRADEBUYHurricanes vs. Maple Leafs$20.00Nov 10, 01:33 UTC
TRADEBUYHurricanes vs. Maple Leafs$1.00Nov 10, 01:32 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 10, 00:01 UTC
TRADESELLChina x India military clash by December 31?$0.88Nov 9, 22:00 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025?$2.20Nov 9, 22:00 UTC
TRADESELLWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$25.95Nov 9, 22:00 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 9, 00:00 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 8, 00:03 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 7, 00:01 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 6, 00:03 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 5, 00:04 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 4, 00:02 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 3, 00:00 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 2, 00:01 UTC
YIELD$0.00Nov 1, 00:01 UTC
YIELD$0.00Oct 31, 00:02 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity30 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry42 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk51 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 15
Avg trade size: $20.98
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Sep 26, 06:17 UTC
Last active: Nov 10, 02:28 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:36:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data