Merry-Instinct
0x04c30bf8962249cf05f9bdd18611335e8fc04cd1
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$95.92
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
0%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of August 10 2026?
85 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$84.83
$-0.17
- NO
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
11 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.09
$-0.01
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
1417 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.25
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20?
700 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-184.95
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 20?
696 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-177.44
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28?
680 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-179.66
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 12?
622 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-158.54
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12?
622 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-158.54
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
599 shares @ 25.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-154.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 28?
595 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-157.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of August 10 2026?$85.00Aug 11, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-07-04?$1.33Jul 3, 11:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?$86.09Jul 3, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?$86.00Jun 30, 09:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 31?$13.83Jun 30, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$72.83Jun 30, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$72.68May 31, 09:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$72.64May 31, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$72.36May 30, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$71.92May 30, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$72.01May 30, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 31?$13.80May 30, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Thunder$7.75May 30, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$93.89May 30, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$94.01May 30, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$12.01May 30, 05:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$82.16May 30, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$82.01May 28, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$12.00May 28, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMFenerbahce vs. Esenler Erokspor$8.45May 28, 12:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $72.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 04:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 06:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.