Hot-Filter
0x04c51a275218a5c5743423702ee05a638a02c2c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-916.34
Realised
$-41.90
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 29?
464 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-106.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28?
308 shares @ 57.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-177.00
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?
214 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
198 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-51.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
182 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-32.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30?
167 shares @ 28.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-48.33
- NO
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
146 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-34.97
- YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?
110 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-89.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
91 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
81 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$10.86Jul 2, 01:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $53.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 21:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.