Double-Demand
0x04e3934efe53a5b5ca9a84f8b9d38f36a71069d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$988.76
Total PnL
$-416.02
Realised
$66.28
Win rate
74%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?
190 shares @ 65.8¢·now 61.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$116.85
$-8.17
- NO
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
100 shares @ 86.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.50
$7.00
- NO
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
100 shares @ 68.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$61.50
$-6.50
- NO
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
95 shares @ 60.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$60.05
$2.67
- YES
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?
73 shares @ 57.2¢·now 73.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$53.43
$11.51
- YES
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
60 shares @ 74.1¢·now 79.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$47.91
$3.47
- YES
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?
110 shares @ 38.4¢·now 37.5¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$41.25
$-0.95
- NO
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?
48 shares @ 71.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$36.54
$2.18
- YES
Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid?
40 shares @ 76.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$35.40
$5.00
- NO
Will Nininho Vaz Maia attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
34 shares @ 82.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.21
$4.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMCincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5$0.00Aug 13, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5$266.24Aug 13, 17:59 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?$0.00Aug 13, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?$0.00Aug 13, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$65.78Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$6.21Aug 13, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 12?$45.89Aug 12, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?$16.71Aug 12, 21:39 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026?$40.00Aug 12, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 4.6 released by August 11, 2026?$17.67Aug 12, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael Alfonso be the WI-07 Republican nominee?$45.67Aug 12, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$0.00Aug 12, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Super Troopers 3" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.91Aug 12, 04:20 UTC
- MERGEWill Michael Alfonso be the WI-07 Republican nominee?$4.33Aug 12, 04:01 UTC
- MERGEWill Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$10.00Aug 12, 04:01 UTC
- MERGEWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$14.00Aug 12, 04:01 UTC
- MERGEWill White House post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$18.00Aug 12, 04:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Tony" score at least 91 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.00Aug 12, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?$0.00Aug 12, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$0.00Aug 12, 04:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
80/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
43 closed markets, 74% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $28.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 01:21 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 20:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.