Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
Probability
22¢
1h
+9.0pp
24h
+10.5pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$4.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 22¢; +9.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2575h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 25.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2574.8h
- 17:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2575h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 22¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 12¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 12¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 12¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 12¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 13¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 12¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 12¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 12¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 11¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in thAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowdemocrats.org
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (25.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.