Naive-Atmosphere
0x04e87ce7ae7fb0f0d1bc7209fbaf7bc1f637a0bf
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$382.43
Total PnL
$-7.2K
Realised
$-771.50
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2630 shares @ 4.2¢·now 7.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$182.78
$72.32
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3600 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$91.44
$-9.36
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$50.50
$0.50
- YES
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10017 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.03
$-35.06
- YES
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
9980 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.97
$-34.93
- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.00
$-11.00
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
37 shares @ 11.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.26
$4.22
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1700 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.65
$-2.55
- YES
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
800 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.80
$-2.80
- YES
Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
8866 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-17.73
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$500.00Jul 4, 04:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $93.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.