Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$7.9K
Liquidity
$26.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 26¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.2h
- 13:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 25¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 25¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 24¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 24¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 24¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 23¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 23¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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