Circular-Sandpaper-Larder
0x058f48b0fe2901214215aa53edf2ead7505c4883
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$75.5K
Total PnL
$-7.0K
Realised
$-5.3K
Win rate
64%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
19779 shares @ 80.3¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.5K
$-1.3K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
11671 shares @ 77.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.2K
$167.88
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
7425 shares @ 77.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.4K
$647.21
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
6156 shares @ 90.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.1K
$558.41
- NO
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?
9681 shares @ 65.4¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.9K
$-471.65
- NO
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
4622 shares @ 96.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.6K
$144.41
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
3243 shares @ 92.8¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.2K
$218.84
- NO
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?
2584 shares @ 88.3¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.4K
$130.22
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
2900 shares @ 71.9¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.4K
$306.50
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
1972 shares @ 91.7¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.0K
$149.23
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBurnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?$74.33Jun 23, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBurnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?$73.00Jun 23, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBurnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?$228.15Jun 23, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$6.07Jun 23, 08:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$8.98Jun 23, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.83Jun 23, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?$61.10Jun 23, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?$101.95Jun 23, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$45.00Jun 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$8.19Jun 23, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?$47.95Jun 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?$100.88Jun 23, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$89.00Jun 23, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$87.92Jun 23, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$1.08Jun 23, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBurnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?$9.50Jun 23, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$48.00Jun 23, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$2.53Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.07Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$3.27Jun 23, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$10.4K
Trades
1
Buy share
0%
Window
May 19, 05:50 UTC → May 19, 05:41 UTC
- SELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$10.4K@67¢May 19, 05:41 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
$10.4K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $139.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 08:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 09:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.