0x05c4a9737e8080bc4ee646c825477e1bea0ef768
0x05c4a9737e8080bc4ee646c825477e1bea0ef768
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$146.32
Total PnL
$-16.09
Realised
$11.13
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
41 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$41.49
$2.07
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
22 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.62
$2.38
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 85.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.46
$1.52
- NO
Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?
21 shares @ 94.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.11
$1.11
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.18
$0.18
- NEW YORK METS
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
18 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$18.44
$8.85
- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.28
$0.25
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
56 shares @ 43.1¢·now 1.3¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.73
$-23.60
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
455 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$16.93Jul 17, 12:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$16.93Jul 17, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$16.48Jul 17, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$16.49Jul 17, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$16.72Jul 17, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$16.72Jul 17, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$16.72Jul 16, 21:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$17.78Jul 16, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$18.38Jul 16, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$18.44Jul 16, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$7.40Jul 10, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$7.34Jul 10, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$19.24Jul 6, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$19.23Jul 6, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?$19.94Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLNew York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves$20.00Jul 5, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves$20.29Jul 5, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$20.30Jul 4, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$6.07Jul 3, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$20.00Jul 3, 12:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $17.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 00:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 12:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.