GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Probability

27¢

1h

+2.0pp

24h

+8.5pp

24h Vol

$169.3K

Liquidity

$59.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.0pp 7d
1007550250
27¢
Jun 7, 2026, 09:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 08:58 UTC
updated 08:59:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T08-59Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 9pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.9× turnover

    $169.3k traded against $59.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 8.5pp in 24h with 2.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 22¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 375.0h

    LOW
  • 08:59Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 8.5pp in 24h with 2.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

Biggest hourly move: +27.0pp at 02:00 (to 37¢).

Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
  • 05:00 · +20.0pp → 30¢
  • 04:00 · +24.0pp → 34¢
  • 02:00 · +27.0pp → 37¢
  • 00:00 · +20.5pp → 30¢
  • 20:00 · +15.5pp → 24¢
  • 17:00 · +14.0pp → 25¢
  • Jun 11, 22:00 UTC · +15.5pp → 26¢
  • Jun 11, 20:00 UTC · +17.0pp → 26¢
updated 08:59:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:59:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

uranium

Reason

Uranium / nuclear-material markets are Geopolitics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 08:59:50 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.5pp in the last 24 hours, +2.0pp in the last hour, and +16.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$169.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.6M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $59.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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