Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 6pp over 24h

   Now 31¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Momentum signal firing

   Probability moved down 6.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.