Stained-Efficiency
0x061ac16314b2c878aaf1a6797b980955e7a4142b
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-827.41
Realised
$49.45
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
31000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-31.99
- YES
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?
30000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16?
20057 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-24.99
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9?
18758 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-23.18
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
12521 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-105.55
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 9?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
5000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
4078 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-57.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9?
3647 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-23.21
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
3571 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$20.00Jul 13, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 9?$7.47Jul 9, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 9?$5.35Jul 9, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 9?$16.04Jul 9, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 9?$26.51Jul 9, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 9?$3.53Jul 9, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$20.89Jul 8, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$62.95Jul 6, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$61.57Jul 6, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?$3.09Jul 6, 00:25 UTC
- TRADESELLArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$199.00Jul 4, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$203.00Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?$10.00Jul 3, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$46.63Jul 3, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$98.79Jul 3, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$30.77Jul 3, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$31.87Jul 3, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$11.48Jul 3, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$14.68Jul 3, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$57.00Jul 1, 22:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $40.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 12:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 14:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.