Well-Informed-Wax
0x062b87fc5c1433b79e350c0f558753db63979a6b
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$402.31
Total PnL
$-5.4K
Realised
$-138.56
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
152 shares @ 66.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.55
$-20.45
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
238 shares @ 42.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.48
$-34.52
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
909 shares @ 22.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.09
$-140.91
- YES
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
609 shares @ 24.6¢·now 9.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$57.22
$-92.78
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
1250 shares @ 12.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.63
$-99.38
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
1046 shares @ 9.6¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.12
$-62.88
- YES
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
766 shares @ 6.5¢·now 4.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.36
$-13.64
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
375 shares @ 20.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.88
$-58.13
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 13?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 14?
6654 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-105.39
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.