Subdued-Ascot
0x063723db69f8009d36a39dc2342adbab7f331e31
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$161.85
Total PnL
$-147.24
Realised
$-93.91
Win rate
17%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.92
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 97.6¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.89
$0.02
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3 shares @ 17.0¢·now 58.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.86
$1.32
- YES
Amazon 2026 capex above $170B?
2 shares @ 97.4¢·now 98.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.86
$0.02
- NO
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.86
$0.00
- NO
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.81
$0.00
- NO
Will Sonny Gray strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.74
$-0.01
- YES
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title?
2 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.3¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$1.71
$-0.01
- NO
Will Maxx Crosby play for Kansas City Chiefs next?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.70
$-0.01
- NO
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.69
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 17?$1.00Jul 15, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 17?$0.98Jul 15, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 17?$1.00Jul 15, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 16?$1.00Jul 15, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 16?$1.00Jul 15, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMNoni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists$1.01Jul 15, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ilves Tampere 3 - 2 FC Déifferdeng 03?$1.00Jul 15, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?$1.00Jul 15, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?$1.00Jul 15, 21:19 UTC
- REDEEMNicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists$1.01Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 17?$1.00Jul 15, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: FK Sutjeska Nikšić 3 - 3 Qairat FK?$1.01Jul 15, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$1.00Jul 15, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?$1.03Jul 15, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?$1.00Jul 15, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 National League Championship Series?$0.99Jul 15, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 National League Championship Series?$1.00Jul 15, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Doja Cat be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series?$1.40Jul 15, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Astana FK 0 - 1 FC Dinamo City?$1.00Jul 15, 13:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
60 closed markets, 17% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 20:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 21:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.