0x06647f6e19fe0b9fc5a44daf98761931ef4a37aa
0x06647f6e19fe0b9fc5a44daf98761931ef4a37aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
3
Open notional
$283.31
Total PnL
$-41.65
Realised
$-7.58
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
234 shares @ 83.2¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$196.72
$1.90
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
108 shares @ 80.1¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.18
$-36.23
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.41
$0.26
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$63.03Jul 15, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$50.79Jul 15, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$1.44Jul 15, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$0.90Jul 15, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$1.39Jul 15, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$4.37Jul 15, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$50.80Jul 15, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$50.50Jul 15, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$50.86Jul 15, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$50.88Jul 15, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$13.56Jul 15, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$2.93Jul 15, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$50.58Jul 15, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$50.92Jul 15, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$50.89Jul 15, 04:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$49.73Jul 7, 11:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$153.83Jul 7, 11:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $42.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 16:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 12:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.