Tiny-Retrospective
0x0686677e79c8aef45b9f392e36155cece6fa45cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$423.59
Total PnL
$0.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$229.10Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYMacron out by July 31, 2026?$88.67Jun 27, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMacron out by July 31, 2026?$175.75Jun 27, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$228.66Jun 27, 03:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26?$492.72Jun 26, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26?$492.26Jun 24, 09:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17?$271.47Jun 17, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 15, 2026?$221.00Jun 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17?$271.22Jun 15, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$270.43Jun 15, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 15, 2026?$219.97Jun 12, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Walters win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?$158.82Jun 12, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Cleaner" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?$378.02Jun 11, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Cleaner" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?$376.22Jun 8, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$269.92Jun 8, 08:18 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by May 31?$277.12Jun 2, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$370.11Jun 2, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$354.40May 28, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$14.96May 28, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by May 31?$276.84May 28, 05:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $323.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 16, 05:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.