Steep-Reasoning
0x071ca94b1a55388eab17211e5ec605930e839b75
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$-559.02
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
130215 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.8K
- YES
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
10444 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-72.11
- NO
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
9425 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.27
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
6500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?
6361 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-31.68
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?
2897 shares @ 31.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-902.70
- YES
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?
1923 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-78.61
- YES
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
1821 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-23.68
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?
1568 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-140.17
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?
1263 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-67.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$6.82Apr 29, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$1.28Apr 29, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$2.73Apr 29, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$43.75Apr 29, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$133.85Apr 29, 12:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$179.75Apr 29, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$164.34Apr 29, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$164.34Apr 28, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$0.11Apr 28, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$166.51Apr 28, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$1.44Apr 28, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$0.11Apr 28, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$0.64Apr 28, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$7.86Apr 28, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$11.35Apr 28, 07:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$1.50Apr 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$12.13Apr 28, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$10.46Apr 28, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$2.45Apr 28, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$5.00Apr 28, 07:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $48.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 15:37 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 15:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.