Occasional-Tablet
0x07c42582f06543a6a65c6cc4967c08a2c97d42f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$15.83
Total PnL
$-1.45
Realised
$-0.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
2 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$2.04
$0.08
- NO
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
2 shares @ 95.3¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$1.96
$0.02
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
2 shares @ 95.6¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.93
$-0.03
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
2 shares @ 94.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.63
$0.09
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.62
$0.08
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.61
$0.07
- YES
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
3 shares @ 47.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.38
$-0.03
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.95
$-0.19
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
1 shares @ 95.1¢·now 77.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.82
$-0.18
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 95.4¢·now 75.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.79
$-0.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$1.68Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$0.00Jul 28, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$1.55Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$1.60Jul 28, 05:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?$1.62Jul 28, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$1.66Jul 27, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Mars" during Michigan remarks?$1.63Jul 27, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Mars" during Michigan remarks?$1.50Jul 27, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 27?$1.62Jul 27, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?$1.50Jul 27, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 27?$1.54Jul 27, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$0.00Jul 27, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 23?$1.62Jul 27, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$1.54Jul 26, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$1.58Jul 25, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?$1.04Jul 25, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$1.60Jul 25, 05:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?$1.64Jul 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.78Jul 24, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?$1.55Jul 24, 03:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 00:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.