Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
Probability
47¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$34.06
Liquidity
$18.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1257h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $18.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1256.8h
- 15:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1257h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 47¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 47¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 47¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 47¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 47¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 47¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 47¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 47¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 47¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 47¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 47¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 47¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 47¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 47¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 47¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 47¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).