Scientific-Impala
0x07d126ea6f8542a58ee2c4c7c31535dd9b3e8ffa
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
114
Open notional
$654.61
Total PnL
$-209.82
Realised
$20.68
Win rate
92%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 114- YES
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
2183 shares @ 8.1¢·now 7.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$172.42
$-4.91
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
533 shares @ 25.7¢·now 23.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$127.73
$-9.47
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
550 shares @ 29.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$57.77
$-101.77
- YES
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
1557 shares @ 4.9¢·now 3.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$57.61
$-18.33
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of August 3 2026?
257 shares @ 3.8¢·now 21.1¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$54.02
$44.40
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
967 shares @ 3.3¢·now 4.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$41.08
$9.28
- YES
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
70 shares @ 34.3¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$19.25
$-4.74
- YES
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
156 shares @ 17.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.94
$-9.66
- YES
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
1263 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.63
$-5.69
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026?
95 shares @ 7.4¢·now 8.1¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$7.67
$0.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026?$4.01Aug 4, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of August 3 2026?$1.66Aug 4, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on August 4?$0.60Aug 4, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dogecoin reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026?$0.31Aug 4, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.40Aug 4, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.44Aug 4, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?$1.02Aug 4, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?$1.81Aug 4, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$2.31Aug 4, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026?$1.55Aug 3, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026?$1.30Aug 3, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of August 3 2026?$0.38Aug 3, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026?$0.44Aug 3, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of August 3 2026?$3.11Aug 3, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$2.20Aug 3, 16:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?$1.44Aug 3, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$2.62Aug 3, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of August 3 2026?$1.04Aug 3, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?$1.54Aug 3, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$3.25Aug 2, 22:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $2.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 22:36 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 11:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.