Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Probability
35¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.70
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.1h
- 17:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.5pp at 2d ago (to 31¢).
Show all 6 hour-by-hour ticks
- 07:00 · -4.0pp → 35¢
- 03:00 · -3.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 32¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://Ambiguous wordingextracted · lowlmarena.ai
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.