Familiar-Religion
0x08946e01931355d9faf7f9814294a60879d3cf93
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$381.36
Total PnL
$-3.3K
Realised
$-373.65
Win rate
62%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
310 shares @ 54.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$277.44
$109.25
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 66.9¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$88.50
$21.58
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
832 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$5.41
$-38.15
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
669 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$5.02
$-71.97
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
500 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.75
$-13.75
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.25
$-2.25
- YES
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
2200 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-161.00
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
1000 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-650.00
- YES
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series?
994 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-66.91
- YES
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
800 shares @ 37.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-297.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.