0x08e6246fae3c1cc9e797239c07578c4b0254976f
0x08e6246fae3c1cc9e797239c07578c4b0254976f
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$66.32
Total PnL
$-34.76
Realised
$-1.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
33 shares @ 45.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$32.78
$17.78
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.00
$10.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
4 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.35
$2.35
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
4 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.09
$2.08
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
42 shares @ 36.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.96
$-11.04
- YES
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
6 shares @ 35.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.66
$-1.34
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.48
$-1.52
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
42 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the SPX opening price on January 5 be less than 6,721.30?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$2.11Feb 12, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.11Feb 12, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$10.53Feb 12, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?$14.36Feb 12, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$20.00Feb 12, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$2.18Jan 28, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$2.00Jan 22, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.00Jan 22, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$2.00Jan 16, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$2.00Jan 13, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jan 12, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$5.00Jan 12, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?$20.00Jan 11, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$2.00Jan 10, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$2.00Jan 10, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?$10.00Jan 10, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei public appearance by Friday?$20.00Jan 10, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$2.00Jan 9, 09:55 UTC
- SPLITWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?$10.00Jan 9, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMNew "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? $41.00Jan 9, 08:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $5.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 04:31 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 12, 10:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.