Youthful-Target
0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.4K
Total PnL
$9.3K
Realised
$4.1K
Win rate
89%
107 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1652 shares @ 93.8¢·now 90.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.5K
$-49.70
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6045 shares @ 9.4¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.2K
$603.04
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2059 shares @ 4.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$884.25
$801.31
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3183 shares @ 5.5¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$638.20
$462.88
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
2270 shares @ 10.3¢·now 23.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$543.68
$309.01
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4502 shares @ 4.4¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$524.48
$326.13
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1850 shares @ 5.9¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$498.52
$389.56
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3908 shares @ 2.0¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$494.36
$414.29
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2903 shares @ 2.5¢·now 12.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$361.42
$289.49
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2268 shares @ 0.8¢·now 9.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$205.25
$186.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$130.41Jul 28, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$90.80Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$5.97Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$38.66Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$11.65Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$5.36Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?$7.47Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 28?$1.70Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.89Jul 28, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.95Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.23Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.70Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$13.18Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.97Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$14.19Jul 28, 16:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.90Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$5.73Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 28?$6.09Jul 27, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sam Altman be TIME Person of the Year 2026?$27.14Jul 27, 17:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 107 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
107 closed markets, 89% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $22.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 107 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.