Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Probability
84¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$3.8K
Liquidity
$77.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2262h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2262.1h
- 17:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 2262h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 84¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at 2d ago (to 83¢).
Show all 11 hour-by-hour ticks
- 14:00 · +3.0pp → 85¢
- 12:00 · +3.0pp → 85¢
- 11:00 · +3.0pp → 85¢
- 09:00 · +3.0pp → 85¢
- 08:00 · +3.0pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 83¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 83¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 83¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 83¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 83¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 83¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · highfederalreserve.gov
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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