Accomplished-Splendor
0x0a4dec4c1dee26c57ce8ee80a540e5163c535f9f
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
143
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-5.8K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
84%
70 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 143- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1300 shares @ 55.5¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$578.50
$-143.50
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 92.6¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$357.50
$-105.50
- NO
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?
168 shares @ 85.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$147.33
$3.19
- YES
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?
1101 shares @ 12.6¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$137.68
$-0.64
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 96.7¢·now 90.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$90.30
$-6.40
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
200 shares @ 33.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$63.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$9.50
$3.50
- YES
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1400 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.70
$-6.30
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 10.5¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.50
$-13.50
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
755 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.29
$-1.51
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$100.00Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$2.0KJul 28, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$300.00Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$41.40Jul 28, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$6.50Jul 28, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$28.03Jul 28, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$31.92Jul 28, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$409.34Jul 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$2.01Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$5.69Jul 27, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$5.69Jul 27, 21:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$900.75Jul 27, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$1.61Jul 27, 15:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.02Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$3.19Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$6.45Jul 26, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$1.16Jul 26, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dune: Part Three be delayed?$134.23Jul 26, 20:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 70 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
70 closed markets, 84% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $59.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 05:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 70 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.