Harmful-Disease
0x0aec230102b5eb0681fc8a7844e8c46b36a480f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$64.76
Realised
$72.48
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$200.00
$3.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
200 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$200.00
$2.80
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 98.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$200.00
$3.20
- NO
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
200 shares @ 95.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$200.00
$9.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 98.4¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$195.40
$-1.40
- NO
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
200 shares @ 97.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$194.60
$-0.40
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 96.8¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$193.51
$-0.10
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 95.9¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$192.72
$0.90
- NO
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 96.2¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$192.50
$0.10
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$191.30
$-0.70
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?$192.54Jul 26, 02:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$182.00Jul 26, 01:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?$2.55Jul 24, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$141.88Jul 24, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$38.12Jul 24, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$180.00Jul 24, 05:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$177.60Jul 23, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$32.13Jul 23, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$113.46Jul 23, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$36.41Jul 23, 11:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?$193.60Jul 21, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?$196.80Jul 21, 14:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $62.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 14:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.